The Ord Oracle July 11, 2023

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 6/21/23 at 4365.69.

Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98: Sold 6/16/23 at 4409.59 = gain of 7.26%.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

The bottom window is the weekly SPX/VIX ratio and the next higher window is the weekly SPX. We pointed out the times when the SPX weekly has a minor retracement and the SPX/VIX ratio has a large retracement. This doesn't happen all the time, but when it does, it is a good warning that market may be near a high. The SPY was up five days in a row going into Monday (July 3), which predicts the market will be higher within five days 85% of the time. If the market does make a higher high this week or next week and the SPX/VIX ratio makes a lower high, a divergence will show up. We noted the previous divergences in shaded light pink on the chart above, and all came near highs in the SPX. Evidence is growing that a high in the SPX may not be far off.

Above is the weekly SPY (top window) with its Bollinger Band. The SPY is usually near a stall area when half of the trading range closes above the weekly upper Bollinger band. We noted those times with a blue circle on the chart above. The bottom window is the weekly VIX; readings below 17 suggest a trending market is in force, and the current close is 14.90. A close above 17 on the VIX would suggest a pullback in the market is nearing. The SPY uptrend is intact, but signs are present that a pullback is not far off.

Tim Ord,

Editor

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